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Old 01-03-2013, 08:20 PM #673
I'm inebriated
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:21 PM #674
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The more vin talks about new york the more it sounds like new york is only a good place to visit, not live.
This is why I will probably end up in TN, GA or TX long term and visit NY frequently.

http://ironwooddesigns.com/VZ58_Czech.html

Not worth $188 but kinda want. Would be nice to stain and finish exactly how I want though.
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:22 PM #675
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Taco Bell sounds good until you actually eat it
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:25 PM #676
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when does taco bell ever sound/look good?
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:26 PM #677
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when does taco bell ever sound/look good?
when drunk.

Also you don't get to discuss these matters because you think black bean vegetarian burgers sound/look good
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:31 PM #678
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Dat Oregon speed
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:31 PM #679
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when drunk.

Also you don't get to discuss these matters because you think black bean vegetarian burgers sound/look good
I only eat black bean vegetarian burgers when drunk.
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:32 PM #680
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dat dude fast
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:34 PM #681
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why does anyone bother debating anything with five nom anymore
Because I'm an idiot?

Quote:
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good question. he's a perfect example/case study of pet beliefs
Pontificate.
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"Originally posted by visualx: hey everyone, look at me. i call people poor though i make absolutely nothing; brag about my job as an intern or some ****; hate on people for not being fat like me; and absolutely never have any idea what i'm talking about, though i always have a ****ing righteous indignation with everything i say! aren't i ****ing amazing?! do you all like me yet?! oh, you know that hate is just a guise! good thing i have a ****ing amazing life! now let me go **** my fat girlfriend and cry myself to sleep"
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:40 PM #682
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You think those upstanding individuals next to him have ever been to Oregon? What percentage of their welfare check do you think they spent on those tickets? This is what Five wants. He wants your tax dollars to go toward front row tickets at sporting events.
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:41 PM #683
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That was ****ing fast.
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"Originally posted by visualx: hey everyone, look at me. i call people poor though i make absolutely nothing; brag about my job as an intern or some ****; hate on people for not being fat like me; and absolutely never have any idea what i'm talking about, though i always have a ****ing righteous indignation with everything i say! aren't i ****ing amazing?! do you all like me yet?! oh, you know that hate is just a guise! good thing i have a ****ing amazing life! now let me go **** my fat girlfriend and cry myself to sleep"
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:41 PM #684
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Pontificate.
wut
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:42 PM #685
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wut
Pet beliefs.
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"Originally posted by visualx: hey everyone, look at me. i call people poor though i make absolutely nothing; brag about my job as an intern or some ****; hate on people for not being fat like me; and absolutely never have any idea what i'm talking about, though i always have a ****ing righteous indignation with everything i say! aren't i ****ing amazing?! do you all like me yet?! oh, you know that hate is just a guise! good thing i have a ****ing amazing life! now let me go **** my fat girlfriend and cry myself to sleep"
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:44 PM #686
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figure it out. i'm lazy

How We Protect Our Pet Beliefs – Part I

General Lesson:

We protect our pet beliefs not typically by ignoring contradictory data. Rather, we typically protect our pet beliefs by “finessing” that data.

(1) Representativeness Heuristic

Lesson: We tend to make judgments by using stereotypes. (Our idea of the representative X.) [This is a very rough account of the Representativeness Heuristic.]

“Stereotypes” – negative connotation. But we can’t get along in the world without using stereotypes.
Angry bear
Green spots on bread….. (New special sauce?)
X has pierces & tatoos: Major?
X wears a suit & carries a briefcase: Major?

Often, the RH is a perfectly reasonable reasoning strategy to use. But sometimes, it leads to error:

a. RH → Clustering Illusion

Our “stereotype” of random sequences is less streaky than real random sequences.
Therefore, we’re surprised by how streaky random sequences are.

b. RH → Base Rate Paradox

Our “stereotype” of a drug user involves failing a drug test.
Our “stereotype” of a sick person involves testing positive for an illness.

c. RH → Conjuction Fallacy

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations.
Please rank the following statements by their probability, using 1 for the most probable and 3 for the least probable.
A. Linda is active in the feminist movement.
B. Linda is a bank teller.
C. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

Linda does not sound like a stereotypical bank teller; but she does sound like a stereotypical feminist. So in terms of stereotypes: A fits best, C fits second best, and B fits the worst.

Conjunction fallacy: A more specific / demanding description that fits our stereotype will be seen as more probable than a less specific / demanding description that does not fit our stereotype.

(2) Easy Explanation (Hindsight Bias – “hindsight is 20-20”)

Lesson: We are natural story tellers. We are very good at giving convincing but unsupported explanations for things after they occur.

John & Mary have very different interests.
John & Mary have a long and happy marriage.
John & Mary have a short, unhappy marriage.

John & Mary have jobs in different cities.
John & Mary have a long and happy relationship that grows stronger over time.
John & Mary break up.

Mary has hot hands. She makes her next two shots.
Success breeds confidence which breeds success, which breeds confidence…

Mary has hot hands. She misses her next two shots.
She got overconfident. She’s cooling off.

These “easy” explanations often give you a FALSE sense of understanding. Whenever you offer an explanation for some piece of behavior, you should ask yourself:

1. Consider the opposite: If something else had occurred, could I have explained that too?
If YES: Probably an “easy” explanation that offers a false sense of understanding.

2. Prediction: Could I have predicted this BEFORE it happened?
If NO: Probably an “easy” explanation that offers a false sense of understanding.

(3) Regression Fallacy (Ignore Regression to the Mean + Easy Explanation)

Lesson: We often explain regression effects with unnecessary causal factors.

a. Regression to the mean: Whenever occurrences of X vary around a mean, if X1 is extreme, X2 is likely to be closer to the mean.

• John is 6’ 6” tall. Is John’s son more likely to be taller or shorter than John?
• Have you ever noticed that very smart people tend to marry people that aren’t quite as bright as they are? Why do you suppose that is?
Sports Illustrated Jinx.
• Sophmore Jinx.
• Quack cures
• Punishment & Reward
o Israeli Air Force
o Coaching / Parenting

(4) Convenient Memory (Availability Heuristic)

Lesson: We tend to think events are more probable to the extent they are more available to memory.

Often: AH works well. Often, events are available to memory because they really do happen a lot.

BUT: Sometimes, our memory is selective. We remember things that are VIVID or DRAMATIC or ANNOYING or FIT W/ OUR THEORIES.

Hot hands
Phone call when we’re in the shower

(5) Biased Interpretation

Lesson: We often interpret data that contradicts our pet beliefs as BAD LUCK or as ALMOST CONFIRMING our views.

Hot hands:
Person w/ hot hands misses: Just missed!
Person w/ cold hands misses in exactly the same way: Can’t buy a basket!

Gamblers: Recall of wins & losses
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:45 PM #687
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'twas supposed to be a funny allusion to you getting on the soapbox that no one cares about but please, continue.
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"Originally posted by visualx: hey everyone, look at me. i call people poor though i make absolutely nothing; brag about my job as an intern or some ****; hate on people for not being fat like me; and absolutely never have any idea what i'm talking about, though i always have a ****ing righteous indignation with everything i say! aren't i ****ing amazing?! do you all like me yet?! oh, you know that hate is just a guise! good thing i have a ****ing amazing life! now let me go **** my fat girlfriend and cry myself to sleep"
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:45 PM #688
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I like how they've already zoomed in on who I assume is the only attractive girl from the state of Kansas twice
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:46 PM #689
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so you don't know what an allusion is?
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:48 PM #690
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can't wait til next weekend

going to be a loooooooong week at work
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:48 PM #691
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can't wait til next weekend

going to be a loooooooong week at work
next week = DAT POW
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:50 PM #692
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lucky :/

my sis is going to vermont tomorrow. if she let me know earlier I would have taken off work...
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:56 PM #693
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Pics?
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