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Old 01-02-2013, 10:34 PM #22
Lazarusrat
 
 
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Originally Posted by yesme View Post
Jim Rickard just did a presentation for the pentagon, this video tells you a little about it and how fast things can go down.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdPka...layer_embedded
Only watched the first 5 minutes... BUT China destroys teh US economy which chain reactions across the EU. China is the economic power house but it has no markets in which to sell its goods. The US and Europe has teh demand but no means to pay, China has the goods but nobody to sell to. China's economy crumbles as well.

This is the economic version of teh MAD doctrine. The only way to "win" is not to play. We know it, China knows its as well. Teh DOD and CIA war game it just like tehy did nuclear war against the Warsaw Pact but they know that morethan likely it will never happen and if it does teh entire world is screwwed.

The only real saving grace is America has enough food production to feed itself and oil reserves to power itself (to a certain extent). China has food production but no oil.
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Old 01-02-2013, 11:16 PM #23
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Originally Posted by Lazarusrat View Post
Get ready for teh Wikiquote "A petrodollar is a United States dollar earned by a country through the sale of its petroleum to another country.[1] The term was coined in 1973 by Georgetown University economics professor, Ibrahim Oweiss, who recognized the need for a term that could describe the dollar receiving by petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) in exchange for oil."

Like I said I'm not worried about this unless we stop fracking (cutting off our oil production and therefore our petrodollars), Create new bigger means of exporting (increasing our petrodollars but at the same time decreasing our domestic gas supply which raises gas prices and ripples through the economy), or the world runs out of oil ( and ending petrodollars) which is not going to happen.

TLR there is no decline or increase in US petrodollars in the forseeable future. So no need to worry about that createring our economy.



Really? China's, India's, and most developing nations economies are improving. The US and Japan have remained stagnant (more or less). about 50% of teh EU stagnated as well with the other 50% dropping.

Still not to worried...



I don't see it as positive. I see it as an entire generation who don't understand economics or how to plan for thier own future. I also don't see it as an economy destroying event, unless the fed tries to absorb their debts in some sort of crazy debt relief act that we can't afford.



Our nation survived the depression; if we have half teh balls, backbone, and leadership as we did then this downturn should be nothing to get our collective panties in a bunch about.
1. earned by a country through the sale of its petroleum to another country.

China and Russia are currently in a mad scramble to replace the dollar as the currency of choice my friend.


China's is improving? Why because they are borrowing and spending on infrastructure like the ghost cities and malls? The 3 bridges that collapsed there in one month due to shoddy workmanship thanks to kickbacks is rampant there. lots more on china from an economist who lives there for over 10 years now... Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets has some interesting comments via email regarding much needed China rebalancing
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...GyDGgbuxIP8.99


Japan is in race to the bottom as abe just said lets turn up the presses.

Japan Manufacturing PMI Downturn Accelerates; Output and New Orders Suffer Sharpest Contractions for 20 Months
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Marki....aspx?ID=10470

Europe?

European PMI Retail Sales Collapse: Near-Record Drop in Italy Retail Sales; French Retail Sales Drop 9th Consecutive Month; Germany Retail Sales Back in Contraction

The Markit Italy Retail PMI® shows Steep downturn in high street spending continues in December.

Key points:

Near survey-record year-on-year fall in retail sales
Rate of job losses fastest since July
Business sentiment weakens to series low

The Markit Germany Retail PMI® shows Retail PMI hits lowest level for eight months.

Key points:

Moderate reduction in sales since the previous month
Actual sales fall short initial expectations for December
Job creation was maintained

The Markit France Retail PMI® shows French retail sales fall for ninth consecutive month.

Key points:

Sales fall at sharper pace on both monthly and annual measures
Purchasing costs rise at strongest rate in ten months
Stocks of goods for resale decline at faster pace



these are all recent as well.....



We are nothing like the americans of the early 30's friend. People worked back then, people grew their own food, people knew the others in their community.
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Old 01-02-2013, 11:20 PM #24
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Originally Posted by Lazarusrat View Post
Only watched the first 5 minutes... BUT China destroys teh US economy which chain reactions across the EU. China is the economic power house but it has no markets in which to sell its goods. The US and Europe has teh demand but no means to pay, China has the goods but nobody to sell to. China's economy crumbles as well.

This is the economic version of teh MAD doctrine. The only way to "win" is not to play. We know it, China knows its as well. Teh DOD and CIA war game it just like tehy did nuclear war against the Warsaw Pact but they know that morethan likely it will never happen and if it does teh entire world is screwwed.

The only real saving grace is America has enough food production to feed itself and oil reserves to power itself (to a certain extent). China has food production but no oil.
China does have oil friend, they have been buying fields for years now.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/chin...largest-592747

But if you would of watched the video to the end, you would know it is not MAD for china.

Assumptions lose again. Who would of guessed?
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:45 PM #25
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1. earned by a country through the sale of its petroleum to another country.

China and Russia are currently in a mad scramble to replace the dollar as the currency of choice my friend.


China's is improving? Why because they are borrowing and spending on infrastructure like the ghost cities and malls? The 3 bridges that collapsed there in one month due to shoddy workmanship thanks to kickbacks is rampant there. lots more on china from an economist who lives there for over 10 years now... Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets has some interesting comments via email regarding much needed China rebalancing
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...GyDGgbuxIP8.99
Cool PMI links, are you a trader?

I thought the best way to judge a country's economy was looking a the GDP http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth which shows Japan as basicly stagnent over the long term.






What advantages does teh PMI have over GDP?

Edit In: Just as an FYI

Anyway...

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...s=MTTEXUS2&f=M


Oct 2012 the US exported 3,255,000 barrels of oil and petroeluem products per day...

At $93 per barrel for unrefined crude oil (todays price), the US made $302,715,000 petrodollars per day (actually amount of petrodollar earned was higher becuase refined products cost more than crude oil. If you really care you can crunch the numbers)

Finally...

No thanks on watching the rest of the video. Even the guy who created teh scenario called it a 1:1,000,000 possibility. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Most likely no. Should you invest thousands of dollars building a "end of the world as we know it" bunker? I wouldn't recommend it. I would recomend everyone go here http://www.ready.gov/build-a-kit and build a kit though
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Old 01-03-2013, 02:13 PM #26
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I thought the best way to judge a country's economy was looking a the GDP
I guess that depends if you want the true condition of the economy or not. The us government could borrow 20 trillion this year making bombs and then blowing them up and our gdp would be 20 trillion dollars stronger.

Does that seem to tell you all the facts?

Have you heard of hedonics?

There is tons of ways the governments craft numbers to feed to the public. It is best to look at all the economic numbers. sales,unemployment,social assistance, raw materials, etc.

Example, car sales were "up" due to a practice called stuffing the lots, a car is counted as sold when shipped to the dealer, NOT when sold to the consumer.

Tons of other figure fudging going on, of course it's all done to benefit the common man right LTK?


What i meant by the petrol dollar/reserve currency is that when we lose our resrve status, everything doubles in price, seeing as how we do not make **** here anymore, and other countries won't need our dollar anymore.

Here is a write up about it, but feel free to pick a source your ok with to give you this depressing news, because no amount of oil exporting will help keep us afloat AND provide all our needs.

Quote:
No thanks on watching the rest of the video. Even the guy who created teh scenario called it a 1:1,000,000 possibility. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Most likely no.
Thats a shame, if you would have watched it, he would of said, while the scene he was given has a slight chance, the path we are on now is headed in that general direction, and will speed up if a currency war starts up.


BTW if you have not noticed, a currency war is raging, with central banks all printing more and more money in a race to the bottom.
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:14 PM #27
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If foreigners stop buying dollar denominated assets than the exchange rate will weaken and U.S. exports will rise

herp derp
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Old 01-04-2013, 02:58 PM #28
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If foreigners stop buying dollar denominated assets than the exchange rate will weaken and U.S. exports will rise

herp derp
Thanks wiki econ.

Now tell us what happens when no one wants the DOLLAR anymore, not dollar denominated assets like tbills.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:01 PM #29
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NGDP rises, or if you're taking only about foreigners than its the same thing.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:13 PM #30
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Thanks wiki econ.

Now tell us what happens when no one wants the DOLLAR anymore, not dollar denominated assets like tbills.
Do you get your economic advice from the guy who sells fire sprinklers as well?
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:13 PM #31
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NGDP rises, or if you're taking only about foreigners than its the same thing.

LMFAO

If we lose reserve currency status, and no one wants dollars, you say NGDP rises?

how about reality dude...

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If the dollar loses its reserve status bad things will happen at a very rapid pace: Massive monetary inflation has been built up in the pipeline as a result of printing $13 trillion and injecting it into the global financial system over the last 3 years. Once this inflation fully materializes, it would have a devastating effect on the economy. The real estate sector will be hit extremely hard. Building materials would skyrocket in the face of falling home prices. This would lead to a near halt in new construction. Mortgage rates could quadruple from 4.5 percent to 12 or 15 percent. The result would be a collapse in home prices and the evaporation of what little current home equity remains.

Oil prices will spike to levels that are completely beyond the ability of the U.S. economy to absorb. We could end up paying as much for fuel as the rest of the industrial world; $5 to $7 per gallon. Local governments may then be forced to reduce its public transportation operations by as much as 50 percent. We could see the harshest era of energy rationing this nation has seen since World War II. The airline industry would have to double or triple fares in a frantic attempt to stay alive. The automotive industry would see sales plummet. The price of clothes, electronics, household appliances, and every other retail item in this country will take off like a rocket. Indeed, anyone shopping for food today can testify that it’s already happening.

Bond prices will sink dramatically and yields will continue to soar. Wall Street’s liquidity driven stock prices could fall as much as 40 percent, trapping unwitting investors who will be frantically looking to sell without a buyer in sight. This time, when the stock market makes its cyclic correction, we could see the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge its late 2009 lows of 7200 to 6600, and perhaps even lower. When that happens, almost no money will find its way into equities from the bond market. Wall Street will have lost the confidence game it has been playing. People with any investment capital left will pile into commodities. As a result, commodity prices will enter a blinding acceleration of the bull-run which began in 2001. In fact, gold prices have risen by 80 percent since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008. Soybean prices have risen by 25 percent, corn prices have risen by 45 percent, silver prices have risen by 125 percent, and copper prices have risen by a staggering 180 percent since the crisis began.

Banks won’t be able to lend as credit markets, as we have known them, would cease to function. The government may try to implement across the board price freezes like European countries did in the 1990’s. This would likely result in many retailers having to lay-off workers, and ultimately, go out of business. Unemployment could double or triple from current levels. Businesses would fail in record numbers. The resulting shortfall in government revenue will have to be covered by printing even more money, or going hat-in-hand to the IMF. The result of begging the IMF for help would be the same for the U.S. as for every other country that has had to accept the IMF’s structural adjustment agreements. We would be subject to privatization of our natural resources, greater liberalization in trade and our capital markets, and finally, draconian austerity. In other words, the people of the United States will finally experience the kind debt slavery and loss of economic sovereignty that the less developed world has been subject to since the end of World War II.

The social fabric of the United States could also enter a downward spiral similar to what is still being seen in Greece, and other parts of the European Union. There would be riots, violent public protests, and crime increasing geometrically. The only way some people will be able to find certain goods will be on the black market. The United States could experience the kind of gangsterfication of its culture similar to our Third World neighbors in parts of Latin America and the Caribbean.
thats from realdeal

http://realdealtalk.com/2011/01/21/w...eserve-status/


but take your pick from the search....

https://www.google.com/#hl=en&tbo=d&...w=1214&bih=808
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:18 PM #32
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And right off the bat that blog post is nonsense. Inflation doesn't "build up in the pipeline." Monetary policy works in leads, not lags, so future expected inflation would raise inflation today.

If you actually read real monetary economists like Michael Woodford instead of just google searching no name losers (who probably aren't even academic economists) you'd know this.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:18 PM #33
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Do you get your economic advice from the guy who sells fire sprinklers as well?
Banned again pimp?
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:33 PM #34
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You should post that video of you bump firing an SKS whilst claiming to have modified it to be fully automatic. That was a good one too.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:33 PM #35
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And right off the bat that blog post is nonsense. Inflation doesn't "build up in the pipeline." Monetary policy works in leads, not lags, so future expected inflation would raise inflation today.

If you actually read real monetary economists like Michael Woodford instead of just google searching no name losers (who probably aren't even academic economists) you'd know this.
Ah, so as soon as it comes off the presses, my candy bar goes up? Nice try guy, but maybe you should be talking to the guy who does not know the banks are sitting on almost 2 trillion in bank reserves at the fed, you know if they ever release all that to the public, you would have what they call "inflation in the pipeline"




For such a "nonsense" term, it seems to be used alot, even by those great economists you admire so much

https://www.google.com/#hl=en&tbo=d&...w=1214&bih=808

I got 6 million hits off the term "inflation in the pipeline", strange, i thought it was something just made up by some crazy blogger i ran across.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:34 PM #36
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you've seen yesme? lol
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:35 PM #37
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You should post that video of you bump firing an SKS whilst claiming to have modified it to be fully automatic. That was a good one too.

And you my friend should lay off the crack, i dont own any video of me and a firearm, but good try.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:36 PM #38
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Large bank reserves are a sign of tight monetary policy, not loose. We've known this since the 70's when Friedman pointed it out.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:36 PM #39
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btw, back to topic, here is a write up by an adviser to the imf, she is surely not as bright as LTK, but i think she might know something....

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12282.pdf
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:37 PM #40
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Ah, so as soon as it comes off the presses, my candy bar goes up?
If people expect looser monetary policy in the future they adjust their behavior in the present.

lrn2lucascrtique
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:39 PM #41
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btw, back to topic, here is a write up by an adviser to the imf, she is surely not as bright as LTK, but i think she might know something....

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12282.pdf
As far as I can tell that paper has nothing to do with monetary policy.

This paper by Michael Woodford (the most influential monetary economist in the world) does though:

http://kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf

He is way smarter than me, I admit it.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:55 PM #42
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you've seen yesme? lol
He posted a video which he claimed was him/his friend firing an SKS that had been modified to be fully automatic. It was pointed out that they were merely bump firing the rifle and the video was soon deleted from the post. This was back when he was going on about the swine flu vaccine being some way the government was going to infect us all with some super virus or whatever.

Before that is was 9/11 nonsense about super thermite. Now it is a planned economic collapse...

What happened to your blog, Garret?

Last edited by Space Pope : 01-04-2013 at 03:58 PM.
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