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Old 01-02-2013, 05:05 PM #442
AlphaNeo36
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Originally Posted by SniperForce-Duffek View Post

Typically...You don't get arrested until you have proving that you are indeed intoxicated.
There I go again, assuming this forum isn't full of children needing explanation of Bill of Rights level assumptions.
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Old 01-02-2013, 05:08 PM #443
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Originally Posted by Tafari Makonnen View Post

You should know better than to ask a question like that...
queue the "I am streets smart" quote...
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Overbear: better 10 innocent men be convicted, than a single guilty man go free to commit more crime.
Overbear: I prefer that I be given a license to shoot anyone who would pick socialism or communism over the basic freedoms inherent to consumerism.
MatrixBaller04 AKA EricS6661: I can guarantee something will happen between now and February 9th.
yesme: i'm not saying you should invest in gold first off, you would be much better off to invest in food,stuff you use and will keep for a couple of years, like razors
Blake360: in highschool, my teacher's father worked for the CIA and she brought my class documents proving the Roswell crash was of extraterrestrial origin.
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Old 01-02-2013, 05:16 PM #444
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You know nothing about baselines do you?
I should do that to my home budgets...
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Old 01-02-2013, 05:22 PM #445
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ha

i don't even know why the CBO publishes alternative baselines. they should just project current law.
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Old 01-02-2013, 05:30 PM #446
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http://mediamatters.org/video/2013/0...-in-the/191970

fox news wonders whether there will be "riots on the street" because of a small tax increase on the richest .7% of Americans. trolololol

And they also try to bull**** us with switching up their baselines too.
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Old 01-02-2013, 05:37 PM #447
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However, at least Republicans notice that our debt is going up $1 trillion per year because we are spending way too much damn money and realize we need to cut back somehow. All the Democrats keep doing is spending as much money as possible and basically say "It will be someone else's problem."
I call BS on this for a few reasons...

1. Both parties see the debt increasing. The Democrat solution is to lower defense spending and inceases taxes on the top 1%. The Republican solution is to continue a the tax breaks on everyone and cut welfair, medicaid, and social security spending.

If you go back to my "we need to cut spending and increases taxes" as the sane thing to do in order to reduce the debt I would say the Democrats are being more responsable as they are cuting spending (at least in some areas) and increasing taxes (even if it is only on the top 1%). Where as the Republicans are not increasing taxes on anybody and just cutting spending on socialist programs.

2. The debt didn't just appear when Obama took over. I can look at teh Republician track record of debt reduction or governent spending reductions and our spending habits under Republicn leadership doesn't support your opinion. Republicans spend just as much as Democrats, the biggest difference is the Republicians have a track record of giving out tax beaks.



I don't know how else to say this but I believe you are a victim of Republican propaganda and have drank the kool aid. The truth is both the pot and the kettle are black. If we want to actually reduce the debt we will have to ALOT MORE than what we currently have.
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:59 PM #448
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:20 PM #449
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Originally Posted by AlphaNeo36 View Post
[IG]http://i.imgur.com/ybFH6.jpg[/IMG]

The percentage investigated for fraud are people suspected of fraud. In Maryland's case in FY2011 that was 1291 of 645,349 people in the program. Of those suspected of fraud, 323 were found to be defrauding the system. But for some strange reason you make it out like 25% of people in the program are statically defrauding the program when that's not what the report is saying at all. You have the data, you can misread it however you want.

derp

Don't belittle yourself like that.

So yeah, my analogy is perfectly accurate.
Okay so the problem isn't with your reading the data, it's with you reading what I previously said correctly.

"If you're talking about the small percentage that was investigated, they still found that the fraud was 15% or greater in each state, all 3 years."
In the 9 different samples, they found the percentage to be at least 15% or higher.

And like BR said, that doesn't account for the people not caught and the other large percentage not investigated. The article also tells how easy it is to get away with not being caught:
"A common way that people bilk the system is by lying about their eligibility, such as income levels, on their welfare applications, according to Terry P. Scates, assistant inspector general for Maryland's Department of Human Resources. Recipients also might fail to notify the Social Security Administration when their income or number of dependents changes.

Quote:
Nothing really stops anyone from lying," Scates said. "Ideally, case workers can identify [misinformation] during the eligibility process. But in this day and time, unfortunately, you have a lot of folks that are computer savvy and they can create the right documentation to back up their claims."

But it's getting more difficult for the cash-strapped states to investigate as budgets are slashed.

Maryland has 14 investigators -- or less than one per county -- to investigate food stamp fraud as well as impropriety in every other welfare program Social Security offers, Scates said.

The state had twice as many investigators five years ago, but state budget cuts prompted staff reductions, he said.

Instead, he added, Maryland relies primarily on tips from the community to determine which cases to investigate.
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:31 PM #450
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15% of fraud investigated =/= 15% of recipients are abusing the program. I'd say take a remedial math course, but this is too ****ing elementary to even be covered in that.
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:37 PM #451
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Quote:
Originally Posted by licence2kill View Post
15% of fraud investigated =/= 15% of recipients are abusing the program. I'd say take a remedial math course, but this is too ****ing elementary to even be covered in that.
15% fraud investigated means 15% of the total getting the welfare stuffs are doing something wrong or it looks like they are doing something wrong. It doesn't account for those cheating but flying under the radar. Lies, damn lies, statistics.

You are almost saying the equivalent of the only people that drive drunk get caught by the police and charged with some form of DUI. Tread carefully, because I know that isn't what you mean ( right?).
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Last edited by barrel roll : 01-02-2013 at 09:41 PM.
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:41 PM #452
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ok, but your'e making things up.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:10 PM #453
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15% of fraud investigated =/= 15% of recipients are abusing the program. I'd say take a remedial math course, but this is too ****ing elementary to even be covered in that.
Did you not read anything I just posted? You are close to exceeding Gonzo's level right now.
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Wow, LTK is still the same ****** he was when he got ran out of ST:S.
That would be a correct assertion.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:17 PM #454
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Your whole argument hinges on the belief that theres way more fraud then documented, despite no actual evidence.

Just admit that you have no evidence to support your claims and let us all go back to discussing the fiscal cliff.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:18 PM #455
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Did you not read anything I just posted? You are close to exceeding Gonzo's level right now.
You are misunderstanding the study.

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15% fraud investigated means 15% of the total getting the welfare stuffs are doing something wrong or it looks like they are doing something wrong. It doesn't account for those cheating but flying under the radar. Lies, damn lies, statistics.

You are almost saying the equivalent of the only people that drive drunk get caught by the police and charged with some form of DUI. Tread carefully, because I know that isn't what you mean ( right?).
It is much closer to the police pulling over ever person that they see swerving and 15% of them getting a DUI. The police aren't blindly pulling people over. They are pulling over the ones that show signs of driving drunk. Are there drunk drivers out there that they miss? Sure. But that does not fix curb the flaw of the study (or at least its presentation) that the 15% is only of those investigated for driving drunk not the general population.

--

Essentially, the stat is meaningless bull****. I question why it was brought up to begin with... Dishonestly portraying something that isn't so perhaps? Surprising!
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:22 PM #456
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Your whole argument hinges on the belief that theres way more fraud then documented, despite no actual evidence.

Just admit that you have no evidence to support your claims and let us all go back to discussing the fiscal cliff.
As BR said, that's just the people caught. But you're probably right, everyone else on food stamps is a saint and wouldn't do something like that right?


But then again, I'm also talking to the guy who thinks we can easily afford to spend money on renewable energy.

edit: Im not misunderstanding the study and haven't. You, L2k, and Alpha are misunderstanding what I have said. Explain how the stat is meaningless?

And to reply to your previous post that you deleted.... yes the sample sizes are small but they also included 2 states and D.C. over 3 different years for a total of 9 different samples. And one of the tests included 17% of Maryland's food stamp users. That sample still revealed a 19% fraud rate with another 10% being overpayment. So it doesn't matter if the sample size was .5% of the people on food stamps or 17%, the numbers are still close.
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Last edited by BodyCount81 : 01-02-2013 at 10:29 PM.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:33 PM #457
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But then again, I'm also talking to the guy who thinks we can easily afford to spend money on renewable energy.
Bro, we just raised taxes on people making over 400k/year! That is enough to run the government for 4 days.... WE CAN BUY WHATEVER WE WANT NOW!

Wait wasn't the Obama administration doing that anyways?
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:33 PM #458
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As BR said, that's just the people caught. But you're probably right, everyone else on food stamps is a saint and wouldn't do something like that right?
If 15% of those investigated are committing fraud, wouldn't you assume the rate would be less among those not investigated. The only way the rate would be higher would be for those investigating to be worse at it than a literal random chance. They may not be the best, but how incompetent do you think they are? Less than pulling a name out of a hat?

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So it doesn't matter if the sample size was .5% of the people on food stamps or 17%, the numbers are still close.
It does matter because that .5% are the ones being investigated. You are essentially looking at all the murder cases in the nation, seeing that x% of them are ruled guilty, and saying that x% of the nation are murderers. How aren't you getting this...
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:43 PM #459
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Alpha made it abundantly clear forever ago:

In Maryland's case:
People in the program: 645,349
People investigated for fraud: 1291
People found guilty of fraud: 323
Effective rate of fraud: 0.0005%

Of course there are more people committing fraud that haven't got caught. I am not denying that. But you are twisting a study to say something that it is not. To be frank, this level of dishonesty is sickening.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:51 PM #460
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Bro, we just raised taxes on people making over 400k/year! That is enough to run the government for 4 days.... WE CAN BUY WHATEVER WE WANT NOW!

Wait wasn't the Obama administration doing that anyways?
Is that really how long the government could run?
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If 15% of those investigated are committing fraud, wouldn't you assume the rate would be less among those not investigated. The only way the rate would be higher would be for those investigating to be worse at it than a literal random chance. They may not be the best, but how incompetent do you think they are? Less than pulling a name out of a hat?



It does matter because that .5% are the ones being investigated. You are essentially looking at all the murder cases in the nation, seeing that x% of them are ruled guilty, and saying that x% of the nation are murderers. How aren't you getting this...
I'm not saying the rate of those not investigated will be more, less, or stay the same because I don't know. But when the assistant inspector general for Maryland's Department of Human Resources tells how easy it is to get away with fraud and that the majority of the cases investigated come from the public, then I will assume there are others doing the same that aren't being caught. But according to L2K, I need hard evidence to think other wise.

What about the 17% that was investigated in 2009 in Maryland? That is a huge difference in the .2-2% in all of the other samples. But guess what, the results were still very similar.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:54 PM #461
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I'm not saying the rate of those not investigated will be more, less, or stay the same because I don't know. But when the assistant inspector general for Maryland's Department of Human Resources tells how easy it is to get away with fraud and that the majority of the cases investigated come from the public, then I will assume there are others doing the same that aren't being caught. But according to L2K, I need hard evidence to think other wise.
You expect the rate of fraud to be significantly higher among the general population than the rate of fraud among those being investigated for fraud? Really? Do you realize how unlikely that is?

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What about the 17% that was investigated in 2009 in Maryland? That is a huge difference in the .2-2% in all of the other samples. But guess what, the results were still very similar.
The sample size is irrelevant is that sample is only those investigated. Stop ignoring this.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:55 PM #462
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But you are twisting a study to say something that it is not. To be frank, this level of dishonesty is sickening.
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