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Old 11-14-2012, 09:47 AM #1
yesme
 
 
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Think we are not in a depression?

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...r=Crisis+Watch

Interesting points on the bread lines, also interesting to note is that home values have dropped further then they did during the great depression.

More massive layoffs on the way, and most countries already in recession/europe bordering on depression.

What is your call?
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Old 11-14-2012, 09:53 AM #2
Tafari Makonnen
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So how long before this thing you have been going on about for years actually happens?
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Old 11-14-2012, 09:53 AM #3
AlphaNeo36
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I just got back from the razor line. It's getting bad out there.
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Old 11-14-2012, 10:06 AM #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tafari Makonnen View Post
So how long before this thing you have been going on about for years actually happens?
It wouldn't be a doomsday prediction without a moving target.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlphaNeo36 View Post
I just got back from the razor line. It's getting bad out there.
LoL
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Old 11-14-2012, 10:11 AM #5
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Originally Posted by Tafari Makonnen View Post
So how long before this thing you have been going on about for years actually happens?

Funny, i have not seen you back in the other thread lately?

http://www.pbnation.com/showthread.p...6#post77215016


Either way, trigger events abound for the collapse.

1. Loss of petrol/reserve dollar status : Already underway as china/russia/etc have been making deals to cut the us dollar from trade.

2. Interest rates rising : how low can they go for how long? If you missed it, we can only pay on four things with the money collected this year, interest,ss,medicare and medicaid. With higher interest rates we will right away see trouble.

3. derivative market: A 10% loss means the end of the world as we know it, who has the money to back a 60 trillion dollar loss?



I'm sure all of you are waiting on a time frame, but let me quote an economist much smarter then you will ever be.....


Quote:
The system, in short, demands ever-increasing amounts of debt and couldn’t care less whether republicans or democrats provide it.

Someday the markets will put a stop to the borrowing, but until then it really doesn’t matter who we elect or what they promise. Debt, after it reaches a certain level, is all that matters – not immigration policy or health care or marginal tax rates or short term interest rates or gay marriage. All are irrelevant compared to the institutional momentum of increasing leverage.

Total debt is now about $175,000 per citizen, or $700,000 per family of four. The average family’s income is something like $50,000, so it’s clear that we’ve long since passed the point where a return to a 1980s version of placid normality is a viable possibility for the country, any more than it would be for a typical family that woke up to find itself $700,000 in debt. Going forward the choice is to inflate or die.

So Why Bother Watching?
This story is at least a decade old, and it’s getting tiresome for all involved. For the majority who expect positive change from each election the disappointment must be exhausting, as each inevitable compromise moves their latest hero one step closer to impotence. For the small number of people who see the underlying truth, this show is even harder to watch because the obvious, inevitable ending just won’t come. The zombie that should have died for good after the 2000 tech stock crash keeps shambling along, wreaking havoc or boredom, depending on whether you’re in its path or watching from a safe distance.

The solution? Accept that time spent obsessing over a process with a predictable result but unpredictable schedule is time wasted. So just stop watching. Make the right – and by now obvious – financial and lifestyle choices and then tune out. Turn off the TV and stop reading the business and political sections of the paper. Use the resulting time to develop yourself and cultivate your community. You know what’s going to happen, more or less: A decade hence your gold will be worth a lot more and everything else quite a bit less. And you know your friends will suffer and need your help. So prepare for the things that you can predict.


http://dollarcollapse.com/the-econom...ing-attention/

please try to use more then a one liner in refuting any information.

thanks professor.

Last edited by yesme : 11-14-2012 at 10:20 AM.
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Old 11-14-2012, 10:22 AM #6
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Originally Posted by StellarKnight View Post
It wouldn't be a doomsday prediction without a moving target.



LoL

It is as much a doomsday prediction as 1+1 =2 is.

It is simple fricking math people, get a clue will you.
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Old 11-14-2012, 10:32 AM #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yesme View Post
It is as much a doomsday prediction as 1+1 =2 is.

It is simple fricking math people, get a clue will you.
So is a gravity calculation. Still waiting.

Do you have a fallout shelter?
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Old 11-14-2012, 10:43 AM #8
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I bought enough shovels to start a hapless band of lovable grave robbers.
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Old 11-14-2012, 10:49 AM #9
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Shall we sell the bodies?
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"Originally posted by visualx: hey everyone, look at me. i call people poor though i make absolutely nothing; brag about my job as an intern or some ****; hate on people for not being fat like me; and absolutely never have any idea what i'm talking about, though i always have a ****ing righteous indignation with everything i say! aren't i ****ing amazing?! do you all like me yet?! oh, you know that hate is just a guise! good thing i have a ****ing amazing life! now let me go **** my fat girlfriend and cry myself to sleep"
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:07 AM #10
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Shall we sell the bodies?
Youre not thinking with your dipstick laddy.
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:23 AM #11
TheSilentAssassin
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A depression is either
1) a decline in real GDP of at least 10%
2) a recession (period of negative growth) lasting 2 or more years.

1)


2)


It's only a depression if you don't understand what a depression is.
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:29 AM #12
yesme
 
 
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Originally Posted by TheSilentAssassin View Post
A depression is either
1) a decline in real GDP of at least 10%
2) a recession (period of negative growth) lasting 2 or more years.

1)


2)


It's only a depression if you don't understand what a depression is.
Take away gov borrowing and spending and the hedonic adjustments made to the gdp figures and you still think you see positive gdp growth?
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:33 AM #13
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So is a gravity calculation. Still waiting.

Do you have a fallout shelter?
With the attention span of a gamer like generation, please try to stay on topic.
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:36 AM #14
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Originally Posted by yesme View Post
Take away gov borrowing and spending and the hedonic adjustments made to the gdp figures and you still think you see positive gdp growth?
Obviously if you ignore all the positive gains of the stimulus, it's not going to look good. That's like saying "If you ignore all health gains from surgery, it really sucks. You are sore and you have a scar." And I'm calling bull**** on the hedonic adjustments.

What evidence do you have that we have lost 10% RDGP in the past couple years besides baseless speculation and a partisan "it can't be that good" mentality? Why do you so badly want out country to be failing?
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:39 AM #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yesme View Post
With the attention span of a gamer like generation, please try to stay on topic.
Still can't do it? Shame.

Spherical cow says we should be receeding.
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"Originally posted by visualx: hey everyone, look at me. i call people poor though i make absolutely nothing; brag about my job as an intern or some ****; hate on people for not being fat like me; and absolutely never have any idea what i'm talking about, though i always have a ****ing righteous indignation with everything i say! aren't i ****ing amazing?! do you all like me yet?! oh, you know that hate is just a guise! good thing i have a ****ing amazing life! now let me go **** my fat girlfriend and cry myself to sleep"
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:44 AM #16
yesme
 
 
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It's only a depression if you don't understand what a depression is.
Yes we all know the offical depression signs. What happens when the government fudges it's figures to appear not in a depression? Most would look to other indicators.

Housing prices dropped 31% during the great depression, they are down 33% today.

Manufacturing....
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf6ea54e-f...44feabdc0.html
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...3-9fad597b41bd
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...ssion-gdp.html
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Marki....aspx?ID=10301
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Marki....aspx?ID=10303
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Marki....aspx?ID=10304
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Marki....aspx?ID=10305


Every country on earth is going into a recession/depression, or do you have some positive data i have not seen yet?
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:46 AM #17
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So, what you are saying is that the government is fudging numbers to not look like a recession, but you somehow know what the true numbers are based on bull**** indicators that mean nothing? Once you go conspiracy theory, I'm done. I thought we could have a real discussion, but once again you showed that to not be possible. Sorry, you are just not worth my time.
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:55 AM #18
yesme
 
 
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Obviously if you ignore all the positive gains of the stimulus, it's not going to look good. That's like saying "If you ignore all health gains from surgery, it really sucks. You are sore and you have a scar." And I'm calling bull**** on the hedonic adjustments.

What evidence do you have that we have lost 10% RDGP in the past couple years besides baseless speculation and a partisan "it can't be that good" mentality? Why do you so badly want out country to be failing?
1. what positive gains from the stimulus? Jobs? Higher wages? Most economists except shrill Keynesian ones will admit that stimulus has created very little if any REAL gdp growth.

2.4% of growth in 10 and 1.8% in 11 and this is somehow psoitive growth to you? We had to borrow and spend a trillion plus dollars each year just to get THAT?

2. Whats to call bull**** on hedonic adjustments? Are you saying we do not use them to figure gdp?

If so then discussion over bro, you have to at least know what your talking about to discuss this thru.

http://www.bea.gov/papers/pdf/hedonicGDP.pdf
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:56 AM #19
Tafari Makonnen
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Funny, i have not seen you back in the other thread lately?

http://www.pbnation.com/showthread.p...6#post77215016
What does someone of your tremendous intellect and equivalent-to-university-self-education do for a living?
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Last edited by Tafari Makonnen : 11-14-2012 at 12:01 PM.
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:58 AM #20
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So, what you are saying is that the government is fudging numbers to not look like a recession, but you somehow know what the true numbers are based on bull**** indicators that mean nothing? Once you go conspiracy theory, I'm done. I thought we could have a real discussion, but once again you showed that to not be possible. Sorry, you are just not worth my time.
Did i say i knew the true numbers mr. strawman?

Nice try, and way to get out of thinking again.

lets try again, if

IF

if the government was fudging numbers to make gdp look better, what other indicators could we look at and how are they doing?

I gave you some, now you hit me back with positive ones that show we are deep in recovery.
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:00 PM #21
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What does someone of your tremendous intellect and equivalent-to-university-self-education do for a living?

Whatever i want to do, money is not the most valuble thing to me, family is. I work at places that allow me to spend more time with my family, rather then chasing a dream of more money because of higher inflation every year.

It's called self sustainability, you should check it out.
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