Pick the winner, get bragging rights...

TheSilentAssassin · 11-12-2012, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by drgonzo

Is he really? I mean he's very religious which makes him sound kind of crazy, but he's a businessman and a family man so apparently not too crazy to relate to society?

He believes in aliens, wtc conspiracies, and a giant ron paul cover up. If he's not crazy, he still isn't sane.

$h@key J0nEZ · 11-13-2012, 05:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSilentAssassin

All I'm saying is that he won't be getting my address.

All I'm saying is if he was to ship you something, I hope he's smart enough not to put a return address on the package.

F1VENOM · 11-13-2012, 07:45 AM

FE is very easy to find.

FreeEnterprise · 11-13-2012, 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSilentAssassin

He believes in aliens, wtc conspiracies, and a giant ron paul cover up. If he's not crazy, he still isn't sane.

wait, What?

That is all news to me... I had no idea I believed those things, oh wait. I don't...

Flames are in the mail, with some other stickers too for fun.

Good job Gonzo!

I still can't believe the country wants more of the Obama failure... It will be an interesting 4 years for sure.

F1VENOM · 11-13-2012, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreeEnterprise

wait, What?

That is all news to me... I had no idea I believed those things, oh wait. I don't...

Flames are in the mail, with some other stickers too for fun.

Good job Gonzo!

I still can't believe the country wants more of the Obama failure... It will be an interesting 4 years for sure.

It will be, considering now your half has to come across the isle. The world still hasn't ended but I bet you're one of those who believe is this part of the second coming.

FreeEnterprise · 11-13-2012, 08:09 AM

Actually, I'm one of those people that thinks that Boehner should just give Obama EVERYTHING he wants for the next 4 years. Pass everything they put up. ALL of it.

That is what I would do. Give the democrats complete control, and lets see where it gets us as a country...

F1VENOM · 11-13-2012, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreeEnterprise

Actually, I'm one of those people that thinks that Boehner should just give Obama EVERYTHING he wants for the next 4 years. Pass everything they put up. ALL of it.

That is what I would do. Give the democrats complete control, and lets see where it gets us as a country...

You're a bad liar.

FreeEnterprise · 11-13-2012, 08:46 AM

No, I'm not, elections have consequences. Lets quit the games and go all in... And see if Liberalism is all it is cracked up to be.

TheSilentAssassin · 11-13-2012, 08:50 AM

Europe has already showed us that.

F1VENOM · 11-13-2012, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreeEnterprise

No, I'm not, elections have consequences. Lets quit the games and go all in... And see if Liberalism is all it is cracked up to be.

Depends on what your goal is, improving a country or increasing wealth disparity.

Matt.is.back2011 · 11-13-2012, 08:58 AM

I don't find the Democratic Party in the US to be very liberal, but that's just me. Europe and other countries around the world use a much more socialist/liberal approach to governance than what's advocated in the democratic platform.

F1VENOM · 11-13-2012, 09:02 AM

You mean Obama may be more in line with Reagan than Romney?

Blasphemy, Rush said otherwise.

drgonzo · 11-13-2012, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreeEnterprise

Good job Gonzo!

All credit is really due Nate Silver. All I did was look at his "electoral vote distribution" results and pick from the most likely ones (332, even though it was the single most likely result, was admittedly optimism on my part).

For the popular I bumped Obama up little bit based on history, and used no decimal

It is absolutely stunning how accurate his prediction was, but I knew from following him in 2010 that he is legit and his analyses are unbiased. He got 2010 right as well, despite my desperate hope he wouldn't.

Matt.is.back2011 · 11-13-2012, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by drgonzo

All credit is really due Nate Silver. All I did was look at his "electoral vote distribution" results and pick from the most likely ones (332, even though it was the single most likely result, was admittedly optimism on my part).

For the popular I bumped Obama up little bit based on history, and used no decimal

It is absolutely stunning how accurate his prediction was, but I knew from following him in 2010 that he is legit and his analyses are unbiased. He got 2010 right as well, despite my desperate hope he wouldn't.

The best part about Silver's model is that it takes the human factor out of it. Pundits can always cherry pick which polls they want to showcase (See: Fox constantly referencing Rasmussen and Gallup, because they favored Romney in their sample polling). His model is unbiased and uses proven mathematics to predict the most likely outcome, given a standard deviation. As STK has been saying for months, aggregate polling>any individual poll.

I've never seen a single person change the game of political commentary so much as he did in this last election; I think we are currently witnessing history-in-the-making as the news will be forced to adjust.

drgonzo · 11-13-2012, 03:09 PM

I forget if it was in this thread or something Nate Silver wrote, but basically it went something like, if someone tells you about a poll or subset of polls, when a larger set is available, they are lying to you.