So after seeing some interesting point concessions at NEIC Class A E1, I figured the next post would be about when to concede.
Before we get into the game theory/statistics of conceding, let's make a couple assumptions.
- The odds of you winning a point you concede are 0% (kind of obvious but good to keep in mind).
- The odds of a dirty hang are about 5%
- Players with the flag are not required to make forward motion (even if they are, player can just walk REALLY slowly so it's the same thing)
- Per the third post we discussed how the odds of winning dropped to 28% when you are down by one point and all the way down to 4% when you are down by two points.
- As an expansion of the first post we discussed how getting the first elimination in a game changes the average team's odds of winning from 50% to 75%. Below is the full grid of odds based on how many players you have left.
- Winning points in given time frames can be very difficult. See the below for % of points that go to a hang given the amount of time left:
Games less than < 0:30 0%
Games less than < 0:45 13%
Games less than < 1:00 16%
Games less than < 1:15 24%
Games less than < 1:30 31%
Games less than < 1:45 44%
Games less than < 2:00 45%
Games less than < 2:15 63%
Games less than < 2:45 68%
Games less than < 3:00 78%
Games less than < 3:15 86%
Games less than < 3:30 93%
Games less than < 3:45 95%
Games less than < 5:00 96%
Games less than < 5:45 98%
Given the above, let's create some scenarios:
- You are in the first half
In general, you don't want to throw the towel in the first half if only because being down a point is a disadvantage (your odds of winning when down a point in the first half are about 40%).
You definitely don't want to throw the towel if doing so would put you down by two points and now your odds go to about 20%
- You are tied, there is 1 minute left in the game, you have a guy at each of your corners and they have 2 in your side of the snake and 1 guy in the doritos
I actually did this once at Nationals. Again, given what we know above this was probably a bad idea. The odds of us winning were about 20% and given the time left the odds of at least going to a tie were much better than the 15% odds of winning a game in under a minute.
We actually ended up winning the point and then winning in overtime. Was still not the best idea though.
- You are down by one, there is 1:30 left and you have two guys left and the other team has 3 players.
I saw Russian Legion do this once many years ago, The team they were playing (I think it was the Ironmen) was trying to run out the clock. A better option would have been to have the two Russian Legion players start doing crazy aggressive moves. If they get out, then they get out quickly BUT there is still the chance they might win and tie up the game. Again, that 20% of winning the point and then 50%/50% chance of winning the match(if you win this point) is better than the 0% of winning the point and the probably <5% chance of winning the match.
- You are tied, you have no players left on the field and there is <2:00 left to go but the other team is sitting on the flag and the players have just checked themselves for hits.
In this case, your odds of winning the point are essentially zero which equals out the odds of winning with a concession. HOWEVER, if you don't throw the towel and the clock runs out your odds of winning the MATCH are also zero. If you throw the towel, at least your odds of going to a tie in the match go to around 45% (odds of winning a point in less than 2:00).
If people have other scenarios would love to hear them as well as just general thoughts comments suggestions.