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Old 02-19-2009, 10:29 AM #1
yesme
 
 
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crash course

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashc...-three-beliefs

has anyone seen this series of videos? if so lets discuss if you believe the videos have merit or not.

dealing with economics, so it can be dry at times.

please watch the video before enspousing your expert views.
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Old 02-19-2009, 10:38 AM #2
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this is a good resource as well

http://www.shadowstats.com/
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Old 02-19-2009, 10:52 AM #3
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welcome back, yesme.

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Old 02-19-2009, 11:12 AM #4
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Old 02-19-2009, 11:26 AM #5
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never left, do me a favor and watch the video, i'd like your input into it, and i'm being for real.
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Old 02-19-2009, 11:28 AM #6
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I was seriously going to watch one or two when I get home today, trying to keep an open mind. However, the fact that your second link is a "good resource as well" leaves me, as usual, quite skeptical. This isn't 1984, and government reporting isn't the only one.

anyways, it's 6 minutes of my life I can afford to spend. I'll get back to you around 6.
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Old 02-19-2009, 11:32 AM #7
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Originally Posted by hsilman View Post
I was seriously going to watch one or two when I get home today, trying to keep an open mind. However, the fact that your second link is a "good resource as well" leaves me, as usual, quite skeptical. This isn't 1984, and government reporting isn't the only one.

anyways, it's 6 minutes of my life I can afford to spend. I'll get back to you around 6.
well then if your only gonna watch one or two out of the 20 there, please watch these

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashc...-fuzzy-numbers

chapter 16, fuzzy numbers.


next, can you explain to me what problem you have with the shadow stats website?

are the numbers and research not correct or are you saying that companys report fuzzy numbers, so it's ok?
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Old 02-19-2009, 11:37 AM #8
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no, it's that, without a massive conspiracy between companies, auditors, independent analysts, and the government, a company just "reporting fuzzy numbers" doesn't fool anyone.

It's like the Maddoff thing. Everyone involved knew it was too good to be true, they ignored it because of greed. But it's not like they didn't know. All this false outrage is just that.
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Old 02-19-2009, 11:52 AM #9
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i'm really only talking about the government, but i can see your point about the companys and the maddoff thing.

with the government i'm talking inflation numbers and gdp numbers being messed with to paint a rosy picture.

Quote:
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a comprehensive measure of the nation’s production. In order to be comprehensive, it must include some goods and services that are not traded in the market place. Those components of the GDP are called imputations. Examples include the services of owner-occupied housing, financial services provided without charge, and the treatment of employer-provided health insurance.

Imputations approximate the price and quantity that would be obtained for a good or service if it was traded in the market place. The largest imputation in the GDP accounts is that made to approximate the value of the services provided by owner-occupied housing. That imputation is made so that the treatment of owner-occupied housing in the GDP is comparable to that of tenant-occupied housing, which is valued by rent paid.

how much of our gdp would you say is based on how much the government thinks homeowners would pay in rent if they did not own the home?

From 1996 to 2006, the share of GDP accounted for by the imputation for owner-occupied housing increased from 6.0 percent to 6.2 percent.


http://faq.bea.gov/cgi-bin/bea.cfg/p...hp?p_faqid=488

or how much do you think they would have to pay, if there were no free checking accounts.
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Old 02-19-2009, 11:56 AM #10
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well, it's not much a conspiracy or "foggy number" if we know that they include such things, is it? It just means that those who are ill informed will...well, they'll continue to be ill informed.

If the information is out there, it's your responsibility to know about it.
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Old 02-19-2009, 12:41 PM #11
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Old 02-19-2009, 12:44 PM #12
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well, it's not much a conspiracy or "foggy number" if we know that they include such things, is it? It just means that those who are ill informed will...well, they'll continue to be ill informed.

If the information is out there, it's your responsibility to know about it.

ah, so our leaders should not tell us they are messing with the numbers so we dont understand they are robbing us blind, we have to go out and find the info and then understand it as well.

so what is the job of our leaders exactly then?

what would you say the debt stands at today?

total debt, let me have it.
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Old 02-19-2009, 12:47 PM #13
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ah, so our leaders should not tell us they are messing with the numbers so we dont understand they are robbing us blind, we have to go out and find the info and then understand it as well.

so what is the job of our leaders exactly then?

what would you say the debt stands at today?

total debt, let me have it.
I have no idea what our total debt is. But national debt is a bit of a misnomer anyways.

I'm saying using projected figures is a completely legitimate technique in economic reporting, and that expecting the government to use optisimistic projections isn't exactly rocket science, sociologically. In any event, the GDP is only an aggregate number used for a variety of comparisons, and as long as the optimism stays consistent, then using it to compare aggregate growth over time, or between countries, remains completely valid.
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Old 02-19-2009, 12:49 PM #14
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whats inflation at right now?
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Old 02-19-2009, 12:52 PM #15
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hovering around 4%, but the figures won't be updated to include Januaray until the 20th.
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Old 02-19-2009, 12:54 PM #16
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I have no idea what our total debt is. But national debt is a bit of a misnomer anyways.

I'm saying using projected figures is a completely legitimate technique in economic reporting, and that expecting the government to use optisimistic projections isn't exactly rocket science, sociologically. In any event, the GDP is only an aggregate number used for a variety of comparisons, and as long as the optimism stays consistent, then using it to compare aggregate growth over time, or between countries, remains completely valid.
and the government based those projections on rent they would of had to pay in a inflated housing market.

so gdp those years was way off due to the fact that no money,goods or services were created to account for those projections.

and besides that, how can you count money from what a man WOULD HAVE paid if he was renting as postive income?
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Old 02-19-2009, 12:56 PM #17
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and the government based those projections on rent they would of had to pay in a inflated housing market.

so gdp those years was way off due to the fact that no money,goods or services were created to account for those projections.

and besides that, how can you count money from what a man WOULD HAVE paid if he was renting as postive income?
uhh..it answers the question right in the FAQ you posted as to why imputations are included.
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Old 02-19-2009, 12:59 PM #18
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hovering around 4%, but the figures won't be updated to include Januaray until the 20th.
are you sure 4%?

Quote:
Three major shifts in figuring inflation

Most criticism of the official inflation number, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, has focused on the statistical flimflam used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate how fast prices are going up.

Chief among these is a technique called hedonics. Starting in the 1990s, some economists and government statisticians began arguing that a $100 increase in the price of, say, a car wasn't really a $100 price increase if the power, safety features or general usefulness of the car improved substantially. If the subjective value of the car went up by $100, then, despite the increase in what you paid, according to the government, the price didn't go up at all.

The objection to this kind of adjustment is that it introduces a huge amount of subjectivity into the process of calculating inflation. Determining the increased usefulness of a product or service requires a subjective judgment about the value of this or that feature. What is the extra horsepower of a car worth to a user? How about extra safety features? And to which user? And if the cost of a car went up by $100 even if it came with more and better features, wasn't the price still in reality $100 higher?


Hedonic quality adjustments weren't the only statistical adjustments that the government made to the inflation numbers. Starting in 1983, the U.S. government also started to measure changes in the cost of housing by looking not at the cost of a house but at what an owner would get if he or she rented out that house. Since in a housing boom the price of houses rises about three times as fast as rents do, this change understated the rate of inflation.

In the 1990s, the U.S. government also started to include substitution pricing in its inflation measure. In this adjustment, U.S. government statisticians assumed that if the price of something went up, people would use less and would substitute a less costly product or service. So when steak went up in price, consumers might buy more pork or chicken. Figuring out what substitution a consumer would make again added to the subjectivity of the inflation numbers. Including substitution destroyed the whole point of the exercise because it turned the government's shopping basket from an inflation measure to a set of lifestyle choices.

How big an impact?
It's hard to figure out exactly how much these three changes have subtracted from the rate of inflation. The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank calculated that the use of rental equivalents to estimate housing cost increases might have subtracted somewhere around half a percentage point from the official CPI.

Bond guru Bill Gross figures the changes were worth a full percentage point off the official inflation number. Other estimates put the effect of the change at anywhere from 5 to 8 percentage points.
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Old 02-19-2009, 01:02 PM #19
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uhhh...how does that relate to the CPI's accuracy? It's just saying that calculating the CPI is a complicated task and not as straight forward as pork costs $0.15 more this month compared to last.
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Old 02-19-2009, 02:19 PM #20
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that guy is a veritable moron.

The bond yield rate accounts for inflation...so you could save risk free with government bonds and the expected inflation is accounted for in your bond yield.
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Old 02-19-2009, 07:38 PM #21
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