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Old 08-30-2007, 12:25 PM #1
2term8r
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Market will tank if dems get office in 08

The capital gains tax will still be in effect until 2010 then watch it get shot down by Hillary or Obama. The dems have already publicly stated they want it gone. All major players and investors in the market know this and will be watching with a very close eye. The market will be even more volatile than any other pre-election market because of this. All would raise taxes on private-equity-firm managers. I'm not buying doing any serious buying untill this all passes over and a republican gets voted in.

I understand what the dems are saying; raise taxes for the ritch to lower our overall debt. The gov. can't responsibly spend the money now? They have so much money now they don't even know what to do with it or where it's going and to who. How do they expect us to trust them now? Whats changed that makes them so much better being financialy smart with it?
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Old 08-30-2007, 12:27 PM #2
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When has the government ever been able to responsibly spend money? 95% of all spending initiatives are pork, plain and simple.
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Old 08-30-2007, 01:02 PM #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sutcivnI View Post
When has the government ever been able to responsibly spend money? 95% of all spending initiatives are pork, plain and simple.
Agreed. Regardless of Democrat or Republican, government preserves its own interests.

I read somewhere that the greatest growth in the Federal government was during the Nixon era and now.

However, I share your sentiment that investors will panic if/when the Democrats take over the white house in 08. With Bush's approval rating as low as it is, it seems a very likely possibility.
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Old 08-30-2007, 02:09 PM #4
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Yeah, its scary because a democrat is definitely going to win, and they all at least SAY that they support repealing the Bush tax cuts, increasing taxation on private equity and hedge funds, etc.

But I think the reality is that at least the latter (raising taxes on private equity and other similar funds) is coming regardless, and that the dems will have a hard time repealing the Bush tax cuts.

My understanding of taxation with regards to private equity and hedge funds is this: they usually charge a "management fee" of a couple percent a year on the entire value of their clients assets, and this is clearly income for them, so they have to treat as such and pay full taxes on that. However, they also usually charge a "performance fee" of maybe 20% OF GAINS made in a year. Some of those gains will have been made on investments held more than one year, which makes them eligible for capital gains instead of the normal, much higher tax bracket. This is where they have been allowed to use a little creative accounting and say, "this isnt income, this is captured capital gains", and pay only capital gains tax on it. I think a little rational analysis shows that this performance fee, in the end, is really just another way that the clients are paying the fund managers, and should be treated as income, or at least something between capital gains and income.

But in response to your message... that the market will tank if dems win... the market already pretty much knows that dems will win.
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Old 08-30-2007, 05:55 PM #5
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do we even have a realistic candidate for the democratic party? Obama is a wellspoken black man.. thats it. Hilary is a woman that, god bless her, has done nothing significant in her terms as a senator..

Republicans also have no real candidates.. EVeryones a looney...
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Old 08-30-2007, 08:48 PM #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SAMBROWN View Post
do we even have a realistic candidate for the democratic party? Obama is a wellspoken black man.. thats it. Hilary is a woman that, god bless her, has done nothing significant in her terms as a senator..

Republicans also have no real candidates.. EVeryones a looney...
Rommney, did great with mass the whole big dig was dumped in his lap and he did a good job in the time that he had

but i was going to vote republican any way
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Old 08-30-2007, 09:14 PM #7
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I generally don't get into political stuff online because it can be so redundant but....

Thompson 08.
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Old 08-30-2007, 10:28 PM #8
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The republicans plan of printing money out of thin air is much better

Except Ron Paul, who is ftw
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Old 08-30-2007, 10:44 PM #9
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I belive it is inevitable of a market colapse, for the past months we have been one computer glitch or panic endused (is that how u spell it?) sell off from another great depresion, the problem is our strong economy (sorry guys im not good at spelling) is mostly a lie. Corporate America has ruined this nation with outsourcing, if work was done here it would be $80 dollars for wal-mart jeans, when the price of products go up the working man demands more pay. God forbid the top 2 percent would have to pay more to the working class! But anywayz we're doomed, if u think my views are liberal you are right, but i hate all the canidates in general. I think we gotta go to communism eventually. Viva revolution! LONG LIVE CHE!
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Old 08-31-2007, 01:03 AM #10
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I will try and tread very lightly on this topic, because I have to. The street right now does not care about presidents. Right now the street wants to make money. Here is a small peak at what they are doing.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...CONFIDENCE.XML
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Old 08-31-2007, 01:24 AM #11
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The housing market thats effected the market so much is nothing to be worried. A correction to the errors and mistakes of BOTH the lenders and the buyers. Who's to say housing is too expensive? Its selling at a premium the past couple years. Its called a housing M A R K E T meaning their is both risk and rewards. People forget that when they bought their houses the last couple years and now crying because they bought at the wrong time. If anyone should be happy its OUR generation that'll benefit (20`s, 30`s looking to buy a house). Maybe this is a requirement of the current market to open up for more housing to become affordable. It became TOO easy to buy a house. Hopefuly congress doesnt step into this mess and try to regulate it EVEN MORE than it is! (those in housing already know how complicated it already is).

Can anyone enlighten me on past markets pre-election? Any historical numbers?
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