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Old 09-04-2007, 08:50 PM #22
t_mo (Banned)
 
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To boot, September and October have been traditionally bad months. I think the market will surge on the news of the Fed lowering rates, but will continue to slide for the month overall. It is going to be one wild ride, I just hope this volatility continues instead of an all out crash. The volatility shows that the market is searching for center, it will eventually settle down hopefully after the end of the year.
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Old 09-04-2007, 09:18 PM #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by splatman720v2 View Post
Very true. The feds stepping in shows that there is a problem.
Which also shows that our whole idealistic system of a "free market" is complete BS. A true free market would be responsible for digging themselves out of a hole, unlike in the US where the .gov jumps in when they feel is needed.

I'm not saying I agree or disagree with it, but we are anything but a free market economy like they (The Gov) like to say we are.
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Old 09-04-2007, 09:27 PM #24
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Agreed fully. The Fed was put in place to cushion falls, so there wasn't panics and runs on the banks. I really think the Fed right now is artificially propping our economy up. They are bailing out companies and people who should not have done what they did (lenders and borrowers). They got in over their heads and the Fed is just trying to prevent a complete free fall. Which is what I think needs to happen, risk is so underpriced in the market right now its silly. Since it was mispriced companies took on to much and now when the price finally corrects people are getting screwed.

[/rant]
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Old 09-05-2007, 12:08 PM #25
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I just read the wall street digest last night and they are seeing right now as a great buying opportunity. They are bullish until 2009. After that they talk about maybe even a recession as some of the real problems like our debt, social security, medicare, and medicaid liabilities begin as the baby boomers really start to drain our budget. If the market would just get over the miniscule sub-prime scare, and focus on the market being undervalued by 35%, things should turn around.
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Old 09-05-2007, 06:02 PM #26
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With so much talk about this being a buy market, who has actually ramped up their purchases? I know a lot of advisors who are preaching buy all day long yet they aren't doing it themselves.

I've stayed pretty stable. History shows that extremes in buying or selling isn't smart and I don't think anyone knows what the markets are going to do. It makes most sense for me to just stick with the routine I've been doing.
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Old 09-05-2007, 06:06 PM #27
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What do they say? Calling a bottom is like catching a falling knife. It's great if you do it right, but the consequences if you're wrong is severe.
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Old 09-05-2007, 07:10 PM #28
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Originally Posted by SoMich_Tom View Post
With so much talk about this being a buy market, who has actually ramped up their purchases? I know a lot of advisors who are preaching buy all day long yet they aren't doing it themselves.

I've stayed pretty stable. History shows that extremes in buying or selling isn't smart and I don't think anyone knows what the markets are going to do. It makes most sense for me to just stick with the routine I've been doing.
I double down on apple when the market was selling off at 114 and got out at a few cents over 143. Prolly the trade of the year for me.
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Old 09-05-2007, 09:38 PM #29
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I just read the wall street digest last night and they are seeing right now as a great buying opportunity. They are bullish until 2009. After that they talk about maybe even a recession as some of the real problems like our debt, social security, medicare, and medicaid liabilities begin as the baby boomers really start to drain our budget. If the market would just get over the miniscule sub-prime scare, and focus on the market being undervalued by 35%, things should turn around.
Maybe if you are going really long like 10+ years its a great opportunity, but the near term it is most definitely not. We will see a decline, there is no question. It is just how long that decline will actually be. Some are calling for a simple and quick 6 month correction. Others are saying we are going to hit recession until about 09-10. As I posted earlier, institutional buying is very high right now and institutional confidence is also high. Do you trade like and institution? If so then maybe you can play like they do but chances are you do not move markets with single trades.

If you are trading, then I would look short. No question, maybe there are some exceptions are far as Pharma and tech go. Other than that I don't see to many other strong sector plays. If you are looking to go long, then employ a strategy similar to Tom's which is not to drastically change your plan. The market will go down and you will buy it all the way down. Then the market will go up and you can trim gains, and ride it down again. That is how the game is played, buy low, sell high. I really don't understand how the Wall St. Digest can suggest that this is great time to get stocks cheap. I think the last run up we had was from to many retail investors climbing onto a rally. Now they will all get hosed, dump their shares lower than they bought them and curse the market for another 4-5 years. The market is finally starting to correct just from the rally, add the sub prime crisis we are in for a bear market.

2 Main reasons the crisis has barely begun.

1. LIBOR hits new highs every day.
2. The majority of resets are going to happen in January.
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Old 09-05-2007, 09:57 PM #30
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Gah... I don't see how you can analyze the stock market so much. I get so bored with that jazz. I follow it about as much as I have to and that's it.

I'm not a trader and definitely consider myself in the buy and hold category. I'm looking long term and have been increasing my cash investments just to be a bit more conservative (and selling out of my god awful company stock in my 401k that has just been murdering my growth...)

There is so much more to finance. You fools are missing out!

(I hope you all know I'm kidding)
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Old 09-05-2007, 10:10 PM #31
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I analyze the stock market all day, literally.

Granted that isn't what I get paid to do yet, but I am immersed in CUSIPS, SEDOLS, ADR's, puts, calls, shorts, Bloomberg, Reuters. Lately a lot of options and unfortunately boring dividends (boo! no fun). Most of that up there is mainly before lunch. I usually listen to Bloomberg Radio when O&A go off the air until lunch, I am really a nerd.
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Old 09-06-2007, 10:27 AM #32
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I leave my work at work... I cannot stand most financial broadcasts out there.

If it's something you enjoy then more power to you. I get the biggest feeling of accomplishment in educating clients about how to plan for their future. Once that "ah-ha" moment hits and they see they need to do something, I know I've done my job.

mmkay...we're way off topic now. I'll stop.
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