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Old 08-09-2007, 11:21 PM #1
t_mo (Banned)
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Seeing Red

Well gentlemen, I firmly believe that the rout is on. As I speak the Asian markets are diving like a submarine evading a torpedo. Now the money maker is where does it stop? Are we in for a long term recession or a quick 3-6 month correction?

So lets have some fun.

Everyone post up your guess for the price of the Dow Jones Index, 1 week from now, 1 month from now, and 3 months. No need to back it up with reasons, its almost like the "Price Is Right"



Mine:

1 Week: 12,832
1 Month: 11,863
3 Months: 9,432
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Old 08-10-2007, 01:48 AM #2
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I just put sell orders in for everything I own, I'll get back into the market when things start looking better. I'll be entering the fixed income market for awhile. I'll take my 5% and be happy; sure its no where near the 110% gain I experienced over the past 8 months, but it isn't the 6% loss I experienced in the last week.
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Old 08-10-2007, 06:44 AM #3
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I just put sell orders in for everything I own, I'll get back into the market when things start looking better. I'll be entering the fixed income market for awhile. I'll take my 5% and be happy; sure its no where near the 110% gain I experienced over the past 8 months, but it isn't the 6% loss I experienced in the last week.
Another sad frustrated bull running to the Kodak.

I call the bottom of the dow no further down than 12,700.
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Old 08-10-2007, 05:52 PM #4
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Interesting, it flirted with 13,000 today. So you think it will never go past 12,700 again? Try and put some time frame estimates.
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Old 08-10-2007, 06:00 PM #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupid2k5ers View Post
I just put sell orders in for everything I own, I'll get back into the market when things start looking better. I'll be entering the fixed income market for awhile. I'll take my 5% and be happy; sure its no where near the 110% gain I experienced over the past 8 months, but it isn't the 6% loss I experienced in the last week.
This is exactly why individual investors average less than 4% total return.

You don't try to time the market. I don't feel anyone here has the ability to do that well. If you do, I don't think you'd have the time to talk investing on PbNation, you'd be sailing your yacht around the world right now.

Maintain proper diversity and ride it out. Markets go up and down, just because you've seen a week of bad news is a terrible reason to sell out.

You end up selling low and buying high, which the exact opposite of what you want to do.

Market has tanked, sell low and wait for returns. Market goes back up, buy high and hope it keeps going. That isn't how this business works.
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Old 08-10-2007, 06:52 PM #6
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Get into options trading and buy alot of puts.. we're headed for another great depression. THe feds putting a 19 billion dollar band aid over all this only shows the public and the general investors thats there is a huge problem and scares them
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Old 08-10-2007, 07:13 PM #7
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SAMBROWN, i think its not a depression that will happen. It will be a very, very large, long term correction. It is due to happen relatively soon. We are overdue for one. My guess is:
1 month:
12900
3 months:
12000
1 year:
11034
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Old 08-10-2007, 08:28 PM #8
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By the end of august we'll be rallying. If you guys are into more tangible investments I"d suggest the buying and researching of paintings. Not only do they look great but you have in hand your investment, not a digital statement dictated by an elite super rich using us as test rats for their own profiting.
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Old 08-11-2007, 12:52 AM #9
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All the people in here who think it will go down past 12,900 are crazy. If you have watched the market all year its been very volatile. I will expect triple digit gains two times next week putting us close to where we were before this huge drop.
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Old 08-11-2007, 07:37 AM #10
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forget what i said about 12,700 on the dow. I call it right here around 1440 on the SP500. I have a chart up on the markt order thread.
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Old 08-11-2007, 01:51 PM #11
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For the DOW
1 month:
13500
3 months:
13600
1 year:
14500
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Old 08-16-2007, 10:04 AM #12
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Originally Posted by FalconMan281 View Post
All the people in here who think it will go down past 12,900 are crazy. If you have watched the market all year its been very volatile. I will expect triple digit gains two times next week putting us close to where we were before this huge drop.
Crazy huh?
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Old 08-16-2007, 10:07 AM #13
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Originally Posted by 2term8r View Post
I"d suggest the buying and researching of paintings. Not only do they look great but you have in hand your investment, not a digital statement dictated by an elite super rich using us as test rats for their own profiting.
The market is to illiquid, the risk is to high. There is no accepted value for these things, it is really hit or miss.
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Old 08-16-2007, 10:11 AM #14
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Originally Posted by SAMBROWN View Post
Get into options trading and buy alot of puts.. we're headed for another great depression. THe feds putting a 19 billion dollar band aid over all this only shows the public and the general investors thats there is a huge problem and scares them
Just buy puts? I don't think that is sound advice at all. You could lose your shirt that way. You have to nail the timing for it to work.

The fed injected liquidity because that is their job, to prevent a liquidity crunch that would send the markets tumbling. They did this to ease the demand for cash.

A great depression? I don't think so at all, maybe a recession? The world is so linked right now it would be hard for a country like the US to go into a depression unless a string of worldwide events were to occur.
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Old 08-19-2007, 04:47 PM #15
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1 Week: 12,832
Dow Close 13,079.08.

I was really damn close, except the discount window being lowered screwed me over. Thur the close was 12,845.78. I was only off by about 10 points. Lets see what happens 3 weeks from now for the month prediction.
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Old 08-19-2007, 05:01 PM #16
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1 month:
12900

3 months:
12000
1 year:
11034[/quote]

Even closer T Mo. It was luck though I guess.
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Old 08-19-2007, 05:41 PM #17
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Nice dude.

It will be really interesting in a month to see where this thing ends up? I haven't a clue, mine are all guesses too.
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Old 09-01-2007, 04:02 PM #18
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1 week is 12800-13800
1month 14000
3 month 15000

t mo , i saw in one of your post you manage over a billion dollars? what makes you think the market will go that low considering investment firms are scooping up all these cheap stocks? consumer confidence is not down, although the media says it is, but who owns the media? the people that buy the stocks when they go down.. we're in no trouble. media enduced volatility, yes
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Old 09-01-2007, 04:45 PM #19
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1 week is 12800-13800
1month 14000
3 month 15000

t mo , i saw in one of your post you manage over a billion dollars? what makes you think the market will go that low considering investment firms are scooping up all these cheap stocks? consumer confidence is not down, although the media says it is, but who owns the media? the people that buy the stocks when they go down.. we're in no trouble. media enduced volatility, yes
Housing markets and credit markets are being horrible which in turn affects the markets.
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Old 09-04-2007, 05:31 PM #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeremyCo103 View Post
1 week is 12800-13800
1month 14000
3 month 15000

t mo , i saw in one of your post you manage over a billion dollars? what makes you think the market will go that low considering investment firms are scooping up all these cheap stocks? consumer confidence is not down, although the media says it is, but who owns the media? the people that buy the stocks when they go down.. we're in no trouble. media enduced volatility, yes
I don't manage any money except for my own. I work in the custody side, not to be confused with what the actual mutual fund managers do.

If we are in not trouble then why has the fed lowered the discount window, injected billions of liquidity and will most likely lower the fed funds rate at the next meeting?
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Old 09-04-2007, 05:40 PM #21
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I don't manage any money except for my own. I work in the custody side, not to be confused with what the actual mutual fund managers do.

If we are in not trouble then why has the fed lowered the discount window, injected billions of liquidity and will most likely lower the fed funds rate at the next meeting?
Very true. The feds stepping in shows that there is a problem.
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