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Old 12-06-2006, 09:43 PM #1
I love Impulses
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Housing Bubble Deflation

So, naturally as the housing market goes the prices of homes have dropped due to the massive surplus of houses entering the market and being sold at astronomical rates.

The bubbles weakness isn't everywhere, especially in southern california, but that is one small part in the entire landscape. Many midwest areas are seeing lots of growth as people move away from the expensive cities, and or their suburbs. Surely the housing prices in these growing suburbs aren't something that we have felt in the past couple of years, and possibly something worth investing in.

What growing areas of the US do you think will serve to promote growth in home and real estate values as the cities they surround continue to strengthen.

Since the membership of this forum is world wide hopefully we can have some local perspectives.

Descriptions of new employers, and infrastructure additions would greatly be appreciated, or societal shifts as they pertain to people.
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Old 12-06-2006, 09:45 PM #2
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All i know, is in my area The price on houses goes ^ and down constantly, taking up too much land IMO.
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Old 12-06-2006, 09:48 PM #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trilogykid23 View Post
All i know, is in my area The price on houses goes ^ and down constantly, taking up too much land IMO.
Well, a more in depth description of where you live would be appreciated, not as a stalker, but to have some idea why this is the condition. Have any new employers moved in? Large development projects?
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Old 12-06-2006, 09:53 PM #4
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YES, Lots of new employers/houses builded...I live in the uptown cities of Northern Virginia
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Old 12-06-2006, 10:09 PM #5
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Where I'm from housing is very controversial.

Land is rising astronomically in the area, because there is such a high demand for good lots. The north side of the valley is national park (pisgah) and can't be developed. The southern side range of the valley is owned largely by the YMCA. But portions of the southern section are being sold off to be developed. The land goes for ridiculously high prices, but the town is very opposed to the building because the virgin ridgelines are what attract so many people and fund our tourism industry.

I live on the face of the southern range, so we're not visible from the town. I think the town should pass ordinances to keep housing below the face, so as to protect what makes the area so special.
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Old 12-06-2006, 10:19 PM #6
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ilive in miami, horrible houseing bubble there it's about to blow soon too :|
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Old 12-06-2006, 11:01 PM #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ipoppedtimmy View Post
Where I'm from housing is very controversial.

Land is rising astronomically in the area, because there is such a high demand for good lots. The north side of the valley is national park (pisgah) and can't be developed. The southern side range of the valley is owned largely by the YMCA. But portions of the southern section are being sold off to be developed. The land goes for ridiculously high prices, but the town is very opposed to the building because the virgin ridgelines are what attract so many people and fund our tourism industry.

I live on the face of the southern range, so we're not visible from the town. I think the town should pass ordinances to keep housing below the face, so as to protect what makes the area so special.
I see their concern, but tourism can only bring in so much revenue when there is competition within a couple hours drive. Look for something to start small in development, and in 20 years it will be a large change, and probably for the better.

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Originally Posted by heroferlife View Post
ilive in miami, horrible houseing bubble there it's about to blow soon too :|
If hurricanes continue to be a threat to Florida (not this year) then I can see one of two scenarios.

Floridians that wish to stay in Florida congregate in Miami and prices skyrocket.

Or, Floridians leave and the price of the dangerous real estate drops.

It all depends on those hurricanes.
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Last edited by I love Impulses : 12-06-2006 at 11:03 PM.
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Old 12-07-2006, 04:55 PM #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I love Impulses View Post
So, naturally as the housing market goes the prices of homes have dropped due to the massive surplus of houses entering the market and being sold at astronomical rates.

The bubbles weakness isn't everywhere, especially in southern california, but that is one small part in the entire landscape. Many midwest areas are seeing lots of growth as people move away from the expensive cities, and or their suburbs. Surely the housing prices in these growing suburbs aren't something that we have felt in the past couple of years, and possibly something worth investing in.

What growing areas of the US do you think will serve to promote growth in home and real estate values as the cities they surround continue to strengthen.

Since the membership of this forum is world wide hopefully we can have some local perspectives.

Descriptions of new employers, and infrastructure additions would greatly be appreciated, or societal shifts as they pertain to people.
Actually the media overhyping the decline did more damage than the actual decline. They say its a buyers market...it always is if you have time.

The main problem is that alot of people over extended on mortgages in the last 10 years and are now unable to keep up with payments.

This issue is predominately associated with non major cities and popular locales.
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Old 12-08-2006, 01:45 AM #9
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Originally Posted by Harbinger[TG] View Post
The main problem is that alot of people over extended on mortgages in the last 10 years and are now unable to keep up with payments.
You took the words out of my mouth.

I do not think the main problem is the real estate bubble. Supply exceeded demand and it will correct itself. But the new Adjustable rate mortgages in pair with the incredible boom in housing has set us up for disaster. I am very bearish in companies that have major interest in mortgage fulfillment. The default rate will be at an all time high, and some people with ARM's have a mortgage value that is greater than the total value of their home.

Last edited by t_mo : 12-08-2006 at 03:44 PM.
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Old 12-08-2006, 02:33 AM #10
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I live about an hour outside of NYC, and I have been pushing my dad to buy land around here for a while. Looking at something as simple as the increase in kindergarten enrollment shows that my area is growing at an incredible pace, and within 10-15 years will be almost 100% urbanized.

In short. Land is almost always a good investment. God isn't making any more of it.
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Old 12-08-2006, 10:44 AM #11
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real estate is almost always a sound and just investment
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Old 12-08-2006, 11:49 AM #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harbinger[TG] View Post
real estate is almost always a sound and just investment
i would have to agree with this up to a certain extent. real estate, IT, and bio/medical have been the foundations of american economy for quite some time. as stable and unstable as they are, some of them, investment-wise, have put people into a pretty bad slump. i should know, i've been a loan officer, underwriter, and processor for the past 8 years. now, on the above statement, what harbinger probably means and assumes is that you keep the property for 20+ years.

for the thread, arizona, las vegas, florida, and michigan have been majorly declining due to an overly abundant amount of suburban housing and high's in forclosure. they are literally "ghost towns." and i hate ghosts.
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Old 12-08-2006, 05:16 PM #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harbinger[TG] View Post
Actually the media overhyping the decline did more damage than the actual decline. They say its a buyers market...it always is if you have time.

The main problem is that alot of people over extended on mortgages in the last 10 years and are now unable to keep up with payments.

This issue is predominately associated with non major cities and popular locales.
I haven't watched tv in months, but what I can remember of what I watched previously us that the major news networks never talked about the issue, or rarely did.

Let's say it's more of a buyers market
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Old 12-08-2006, 09:05 PM #14
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I live in Tampa. I've been doing mortgages here for some time. Before Tampa, I lived in Panama City and rennovated townhouses there on the side (on top of my normal job). Since living here, I've been an active manager for one of the largest Lending Tree lenders in the country. I also have a property management company that my wife and I own, so I do a lot of flipping on the side when I can. I've had five homes in the last two years, four of which I still own. Two of them individually are condo conversions (the only smart investment in a condo conversion anyone has made) and have gone from the $98k purchase price to having comparable units selling for $169k. I'd say from that alone that there is still a LOT of money to be made. We bought them in April/May respecitvely, so I'd say that here in Tampa, so far, the bubble hasn't burst and really won't.

Anyone that isn't in the industry, or even those that are but know too little to be educated enough are typically the ones screaming (OMG) and freaking out anyone else that doesn't know their P's from their Q's.

If you look at the housing market statistics (which I don't have in front of me since it's 9pm on a Friday and I'm about to go out), you'd see that there are a few metropolitan areas that are in fact declining... Detroit being typically the worst offended.

There are also other markets that are sky rocketing... mainly, well, because people like being able to walk outside in December in their boxer shorts.

Orlando/Ocala over the last few months have seen increased home sales while other places such as Miami and Panama City have seen a decline. Tampa on the other hand ranked #1 for the city with most refinances while being # 4 I believe on new home sales last quarter. This is a decline from the previous year, but that's a given considering that anyone who could get a mortgage was buying anything they could last year.

The problem we have now are the people that bought their houses at the apex of that housing units cycle, are having problems letting their houses go for true market value. They are trying to sell for a lot more then the house is trully worth, making it that much more difficult for everyone else to make a profit.

In another 6 months or so, those that bought last year (05') will have sold their units and the people having already been in the market will have that much less to deal with competition wise.

I'm referring to the cities that have good markets... those of you that live in cities that you couldn't pay me to move too: I feel for you!?!?!

;-)

Last edited by vettewon : 12-08-2006 at 09:07 PM.
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